What happens after peak oil hits? James Howard Kunstler in
his book, The Long Emergency, paints a dark picture of the "end
of industrial growth, falling standards of living, economic
desperation, declining food production and domestic political strife".
History
Peak oil is the new buzz phrase among the environmentally concerned
and the survivalist groups. The Hubbert Peak Oil theory was
introduced in 1956 by Doctor Marion King Hubbert, an American
geophysicist who worked for Shell in a petroleum research lab. His
original research paper was titled, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil
Fuels”. The basic premise is that oil is a finite, natural resource
and depletes over time. Obviously, the more we consume the less that
remains. In any location where oil is found, crude oil production
follows a bell curve shape. First, the oil is discovered and the
amount produced is at zero but increases rapidly. Eventually, more
and more oil is extracted until it becomes more difficult and more
costly, at which point the rate of production decreases.
An example of this
bell curve collapse in oil production is Cantarell. An oil field in
Mexico, Cantarell was the largest in the Western Hemisphere. Oil
production peaked in 2004-05 at over 2 million barrels per day; 2006
saw a decline of 13% and 2008 saw a decline of 36%. Cantarell now
produces just 772,000 barrels per day. (www.hubbertpeak.com).
Now, the first
argument against Peak Oil is that we are still discovering oil
reserves. Yes, new oil has been found in places such as Brazil
and ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge). But we are only finding
roughly one barrel for every six barrels we consume. The
International Energy Agency suggests that without huge investments,
the decline in production of the 400 largest oilfields in the world
will be about 9%. As Richard Heinberg points out:
“Considering regular
crude oil only, this means that 6.825 million barrels a day of new
production capacity must come on line each year just to keep up with
the aggregate natural decline rate in existing oilfields. That’s a new
Saudi Arabia every 18 months” (www.sharonastyk.com).
The second problem we face is that we are now left with poorer quality
oil. The “fresh oil” – low-sulfur, sweet, crude oil - that was first
discovered was easy to extract and relatively clean. The remaining
oil is becoming increasingly more difficult to extract and also
requires more refining – which is more expensive and less efficient.
Many people argue that renewable energies such as solar and wind will
replace our dependency on fossil fuels. There are two problems with
relying on these energies. First of all, we're doing too little too
late. According to the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE),
recent studies show that bio-fuels could supply 30% to 40% of U.S.
petroleum products by 2030. That's great – but that's obviously not
enough. Secondly, the production of renewable energies requires,
guess what, fossil fuels. Solar panel production plants require a
supply of oil and electricity (fired by coal). Oil is necessary for
running the trucks that will deliver these new technologies. Any
plastic parts require petrochemicals.
Possible
Consequences
Peak oil activists
argue about when the peak will be, or if has already been reached.
Many believe that oil production has already peaked, others argue that
we can delay the peak. The other argument is about the severity of
consequences of the peak – will things deteriorate quickly or will
there be a gradual decline? Will we see major effects in our lifetime
or will the effects hit our children and grandchildren? Finally, what
will the effects of peak oil be? Will we be able to rally some sort
of defense?
For homesteaders, it
almost doesn't matter. A lot of what we do to work towards
self-sufficiency is also useful when planning for peak oil. However,
being aware of peak oil may help in planning and prioritizing. In
what I will call a peak-oil world or a post-oil world, the government
will probably not be equipped for handling the consequences of
declining oil. The leaders don't have a Plan B… but you can.
So what are some
possible effects for you to consider? The difficulty of dealing with
peak oil is that petroleum and its byproducts are so prevalent in our
society. Some areas of concern as listed by
www.peakoil.com are:
·
Food
production and packaging
·
Roads
and infrastructure
·
Plastics
·
Clothing
·
Transportation
·
Heating
·
Manufacturing
Does that list
really leave anything out? Anyone who drives a car or heats with oil
will feel the pinch of increased fuel prices. The same goes for
businesses; airlines and shipping services already add a fuel
surcharge for their services.
As pointed out on
www.biodieselinvesting.com, one of the industries that will be
most heavily affected here in the U.S. will be the
trucking industry. Since our country is so large, we rely heavily on
the trucking industry to provide transportation between manufacturers
and markets. How will a crunch in the trucking industry affect the
already flagging economy or the transportation of goods, particularly
food supplies?
